Some 2026 predictions may look strange due to limited data.

Historical Results

Review historical data to see how accurate the Model was in previous elections.

Individual Contest Accuracy (by State or District)

Presidential: 94.64%

Senate: 90.00%

House: 95.33%

Gubernatorial: 89.57%

2012

Presidential

Prediction: Toss-Up
Predicted EVs:
Obama (D): 290
Romney (R): 206
Toss-Ups: 42
Actual EVs:
Obama (D): 332
Romney (R): 206

Individual Contest Accuracy: 55/56 (98.21%)

2014

House

Prediction: Likely R
Predicted Seats:
Democrats: 179
Republican: 237
Toss-Ups: 19
Actual Seats:
Democrats: 188
Republicans: 247

Individual Contest Accuracy: 420/435 (96.55%)

2016

Presidential

Prediction: Solid D
Predicted EVs:
Clinton (D): 278
Trump (R): 191
Toss-Ups: 69
Actual EVs:
Clinton (D): 232
Trump (R): 306

Individual Contest Accuracy: 51/56 (91.07%)

Senate

Prediction: Lean D (accounted odds of winning VP)
Predicted Seats:
Democrats: 47
Republicans: 50
Toss-Ups: 3
Actual Seats:
Democrats: 48
Republicans: 52

Individual Contest Accuracy: 30/33 (90.91%)

House

Prediction: Lean D
Predicted Seats:
Democrats: 189
Republican: 208
Toss-Ups: 38
Actual Seats:
Democrats: 194
Republicans: 241

Individual Contest Accuracy: 417/435 (95.86%)

Gubernatorial

Delaware

Prediction: Solid D
Odds: 99.64%
Result: D Win

Indiana

Prediction: Toss-Up
Result: R Win

Missouri

Prediction: Lean D
Odds: 77.54%
Result: R Win

Montana

Prediction: Lean D
Odds: 74.62%
Result: D Win

New Hampshire

Prediction: Lean D
Odds: 79.29%
Result: R Win

North Carolina

Prediction: Toss-Up
Result: D Win

North Dakota

Prediction: Solid R
Odds: 100.00%
Result: R Win

Oregon

Prediction: Lean D
Odds: 89.40%
Result: D Win

Utah

Prediction: Solid R
Odds: 99.99%
Result: R Win

Vermont

Prediction: Toss-Up
Result: R Win

Washington

Prediction: Likely D
Odds: 88.76%
Result: D Win

West Virginia

Prediction: Lean D
Odds: 73.99%
Result: D Win

Individual Contest Accuracy: 10/12 (83.33%)

2017

Gubernatorial

New Jersey

Prediction: Likely D
Odds: 88.80%
Result: D Win

Virginia

Prediction: Lean D
Odds: 72.84%
Result: D Win

Individual Contest Accuracy: 2/2 (100.00%)

2018

Senate

Prediction: Likely R
Predicted Seats:
Democrats: 48
Republicans: 50
Toss-Ups: 2
Actual Seats:
Democrats: 47
Republicans: 53

Individual Contest Accuracy: 30/35 (85.71%)

House

Prediction: Solid D
Predicted Seats:
Democrats: 226
Republicans: 148
Toss-Ups: 61
Actual Seats:
Democrats: 235
Republicans: 199

Individual Contest Accuracy: 405/435 (93.10%)

Gubernatorial

Alabama

Prediction: Solid R
Odds: 97.32%
Result: R Win

Alaska

Prediction: Lean R
Odds: 68.43%
Result: R Win

Arizona

Prediction: Likely R
Odds: 80.18%
Result: R Win

Arkansas

Prediction: Solid R
Odds: 94.15%
Result: R Win

California

Prediction: Solid D
Odds: 96.89%
Result: D Win

Colorado

Prediction: Solid D
Odds: 95.11%
Result: D Win

Connecticut

Prediction: Lean D
Odds: 74.96%
Result: D Win

Florida

Prediction: Lean D
Odds: 73.39%
Result: R Win

Georgia

Prediction: Toss-Up
Result: R Win

Hawai'i

Prediction: Solid D
Odds: 99.22%
Result: D Win

Idaho

Prediction: Likely R
Odds: 90.31%
Result: R Win

Illinois

Prediction: Solid D
Odds: 93.56%
Result: D Win

Iowa

Prediction: Toss-Up
Result: R Win

Kansas

Prediction: Toss-Up
Result: D Win

Maine

Prediction: Likely D
Odds: 83.81%
Result: D Win

Maryland

Prediction: Lean R
Odds: 76.06%
Result: R Win

Massachusetts

Prediction: Solid R
Odds: 98.75%
Result: R Win

Michigan

Prediction: Likely D
Odds: 81.48%
Result: D Win

Minnesota

Prediction: Likely D
Odds: 89.77%
Result: D Win

Nebraska

Prediction: Solid R
Odds: 99.13%
Result: R Win

Nevada

Prediction: Lean R
Odds: 77.50%
Result: D Win

New Hampshire

Prediction: Lean D
Odds: 62.12%
Result: R Win

New Mexico

Prediction: Likely D
Odds: 84.41%
Result: D Win

New York

Prediction: Solid D
Odds: 99.64%
Result: D Win

Ohio

Prediction: Toss-Up
Result: R Win

Oklahoma

Prediction: Toss-Up
Result: R Win

Oregon

Prediction: Likely D
Odds: 87.75%
Result: D Win

Pennsylvania

Prediction: Solid D
Odds: 98.52%
Result: D Win

Rhode Island

Prediction: Likely D
Odds: 89.89%
Result: D Win

South Carolina

Prediction: Likely R
Odds: 88.89%
Result: R Win

South Dakota

Prediction: Likely R
Odds: 82.85%
Result: R Win

Tennessee

Prediction: Solid R
Odds: 94.88%
Result: R Win

Texas

Prediction: Solid R
Odds: 94.70%
Result: R Win

Vermont

Prediction: Lean R
Odds: 66.41%
Result: R Win

Wisconsin

Prediction: Lean D
Odds: 63.98%
Result: D Win

Wyoming

Prediction: Solid R
Odds: 99.74%
Result: R Win

Individual Contest Accuracy: 31/36 (86.11%)

2019

Gubernatorial

Kentucky

Prediction: Lean D
Odds: 75.92%
Result: D Win

Louisiana

No prediction was made for Louisiana due to the blanket primary system.

Mississippi

Prediction: Likely R
Odds: 80.09%
Result: R Win

Individual Contest Accuracy: 2/2 (100.00%)

2020

Presidential

Prediction: Solid D
Predicted EVs:
Biden (D): 341
Trump (R): 163
Toss-Ups: 34
Actual EVs:
Biden (D): 306
Trump (R): 232

Individual Contest Accuracy: 51/56 (91.07%)

Senate

Prediction: Lean D (accounted odds of winning VP)
Predicted Seats:
Democrats: 48
Republicans: 49
Toss-Ups: 3
Actual Seats:
Democrats: 50+VP
Republicans: 50

Individual Contest Accuracy: 30/34 (88.24%)

House

Prediction: Solid D
Predicted Seats:
Democrats: 230
Republicans: 163
Toss-Ups: 42
Actual Seats:
Democrats: 222
Republicans: 213

Individual Contest Accuracy: 410/435 (94.25%)

Gubernatorial

Delaware

Prediction: Solid D
Odds: 99.98%
Result: D Win

Indiana

Prediction: Solid R
Odds: 97.65%
Result: R Win

Missouri

Prediction: Lean R
Odds: 61.57%
Result: R Win

Montana

Prediction: Toss-Up
Result: R Win

New Hampshire

Prediction: Likely R
Odds: 87.62%
Result: R Win

North Carolina

Prediction: Likely D
Odds: 83.48%
Result: D Win

North Dakota

Prediction: Solid R
Odds: 100.00%
Result: R Win

Utah

Prediction: Solid R
Odds: 99.98%
Result: R Win

Vermont

Prediction: Solid R
Odds: 99.09%
Result: R Win

Washington

Prediction: Solid D
Odds: 96.31%
Result: D Win

West Virginia

Prediction: Lean R
Odds: 70.55%
Result: R Win

Individual Contest Accuracy: 10/11 (90.91%)

2021

Gubernatorial

New Jersey

Prediction: Lean D
Odds: 75.33%
Result: D Win

Virginia

Prediction: Toss-Up
Result: R Win

Individual Contest Accuracy: 1/2 (50.00%)

2022

Senate

Prediction: Toss-Up
Predicted Seats:
Democrats: 47
Republicans: 50
Toss-Ups: 3
Actual Seats:
Democrats: 51
Republicans: 49

Individual Contest Accuracy: 30/34 (88.24%)

House

Prediction: Lean R
Predicted Seats:
Democrats: 179
Republicans: 212
Toss-Ups: 44
Actual Seats:
Democrats: 213
Republicans: 222

Individual Contest Accuracy: 413/435 (94.94%)

Gubernatorial

Alabama

Prediction: Solid R
Odds: 99.99%
Result: R Win

Alaska

No prediction was made for Alaska due to the new ranked choice system.

Arizona

Prediction: Likely R
Odds: 80.00%
Result: D Win

Arkansas

Prediction: Solid R
Odds: 98.19%
Result: R Win

California

Prediction: Solid D
Odds: 97.81%
Result: D Win

Colorado

Prediction: Likely D
Odds: 90.73%
Result: D Win

Connecticut

Prediction: Lean D
Odds: 74.81%
Result: D Win

Florida

Prediction: Likely R
Odds: 86.06%
Result: R Win

Georgia

Prediction: Likely R
Odds: 86.57%
Result: R Win

Hawai'i

Prediction: Likely D
Odds: 91.60%
Result: D Win

Idaho

Prediction: Solid R
Odds: 99.76%
Result: R Win

Illinois

Prediction: Likely D
Odds: 84.06%
Result: D Win

Iowa

Prediction: Solid R
Odds: 97.19%
Result: R Win

Kansas

Prediction: Toss-Up
Result: D Win

Maine

Prediction: Lean D
Odds: 71.78%
Result: D Win

Maryland

Prediction: Solid D
Odds: 95.21%
Result: D Win

Massachusetts

Prediction: Likely D
Odds: 83.24%
Result: D Win

Michigan

Prediction: Lean D
Odds: 61.34%
Result: D Win

Minnesota

Prediction: Lean D
Odds: 74.51%
Result: D Win

Nebraska

Prediction: Solid R
Odds: 97.09%
Result: R Win

Nevada

Prediction: Likely R
Odds: 81.57%
Result: R Win

New Hampshire

Prediction: Solid R
Odds: 95.91%
Result: R Win

New Mexico

Prediction: Lean D
Odds: 68.00%
Result: D Win

New York

Prediction: Likely D
Odds: 90.91%
Result: D Win

Ohio

Prediction: Solid R
Odds: 98.59%
Result: R Win

Oklahoma

Prediction: Likely R
Odds: 85.80%
Result: R Win

Oregon

Prediction: Toss-Up
Result: D Win

Pennsylvania

Prediction: Likely D
Odds: 83.53%
Result: D Win

Rhode Island

Prediction: Likely D
Odds: 86.70%
Result: D Win

South Carolina

Prediction: Likely R
Odds: 91.19%
Result: R Win

South Dakota

Prediction: Solid R
Odds: 99.01%
Result: R Win

Tennessee

Prediction: Solid R
Odds: 99.92%
Result: R Win

Texas

Prediction: Solid R
Odds: 94.44%
Result: R Win

Vermont

Prediction: Solid R
Odds: 99.98%
Result: R Win

Wisconsin

Prediction: Lean R
Odds: 60.91%
Result: D Win

Wyoming

Prediction: Solid R
Odds: 100.00%
Result: R Win

Individual Contest Accuracy: 32/35 (91.43%)

2023

Gubernatorial

Kentucky

Prediction: Lean D
Odds: 69.78%
Result: D Win

Louisiana

No prediction was made for Louisiana due to the blanket primary system.

Mississippi

Prediction: Likely R
Odds: 90.46%
Result: R Win

Individual Contest Accuracy: 2/2 (100%)

2024

Presidential

Prediction: Toss-Up
Predicted EVs:
Harris (D): 241
Trump (R): 262
Toss-Ups: 35
Actual Seats:
Harris (D): 226
Trump (R): 312

Individual Contest Accuracy: 55/56 (98.21%)

Senate

Prediction: Solid R (accounted odds of winning VP)
Predicted Seats:
Democrats: 47
Republicans: 52
Toss-Ups: 1
Actual Seats:
Democrats: 47
Republicans: 53

Individual Contest Accuracy: 33/34 (97.06%)

House

Prediction: Lean R
Predicted Seats:
Democrats: 199
Republicans: 209
Toss-Ups: 27
Actual Seats:
Democrats: 215
Republicans: 220

Individual Contest Accuracy: 423/435 (97.24%)

Gubernatorial

Delaware

Prediction: Solid D
Odds: 99.59%
Result: D Win

Indiana

Prediction: Likely R
Odds: 84.07%
Result: R Win

Missouri

Prediction: Likely R
Odds: 84.09%
Result: R Win

Montana

Prediction: Solid R
Odds: 92.28%
Result: R Win

New Hampshire

Prediction: Lean R
Odds: 68.28%
Result: R Win

North Carolina

Prediction: Lean D
Odds: 78.55%
Result: D Win

North Dakota

Prediction: Solid R
Odds: 100.00%
Result: R Win

Utah

Prediction: Solid R
Odds: 99.99%
Result: R Win

Vermont

Prediction: Solid R
Odds: 100.00%
Result: R Win

Washington

Prediction: Likely D
Odds: 85.66%
Result: D Win

West Virginia

Prediction: Lean R
Odds: 73.21%
Result: R Win

Individual Contest Accuracy: 11/11 (100.00%)

2025

Gubernatorial

New Jersey

Prediction: Lean D
Odds: 76.19%
Result: D Win

Virginia

Prediction: Likely D
Odds: 81.54%
Result: D Win

Individual Contest Accuracy: 2/2 (100.00%)

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