Historical Results

Senate*

Prediction: Solid R
Predicted Seats:
Democrats: 48
Republicans: 51
Toss-Ups: 1
Actual Seats:
Democrats: 47
Republicans: 53

House*

Prediction: Solid D
Predicted Seats:
Democrats: 247
Republicans: 159
Toss-Ups: 29
Actual Seats:
Democrats: 235
Republicans: 199

*Model testing did not use a historical deviation to determine likelihood of victory in each race. This leads to greater inaccuracy.

Presidential

Prediction: Solid D
Predicted EVs:
Biden (D): 341
Trump (R): 163
Toss-Ups: 34
Actual Seats:
Biden (D): 306
Trump (R): 232

Senate

Prediction: Lean D (accounted odds of winning VP)
Predicted Seats:
Democrats: 49
Republicans: 48
Toss-Ups: 3
Actual Seats:
Democrats: 50+VP
Republicans: 50

House

Prediction: Solid D
Predicted Seats:
Democrats: 227
Republicans: 176
Toss-Ups: 32
Actual Seats:
Democrats: 222
Republicans: 213

Senate

Prediction: Lean R
Predicted Seats:
Democrats: 47
Republicans: 50
Toss-Ups: 3
Actual Seats:
Democrats: 51
Republicans: 49

House

Prediction: Solid R
Predicted Seats:
Democrats: 186
Republicans: 214
Toss-Ups: 35
Actual Seats:
Democrats: 213
Republicans: 222

Presidential

Prediction: Toss-Up
Predicted EVs:
Harris (D): 241
Trump (R): 262
Toss-Ups: 35
Actual Seats:
Biden (D): 226
Trump (R): 312

Senate

Prediction: Solid R (accounted odds of winning VP)
Predicted Seats:
Democrats: 47
Republicans: 52
Toss-Ups: 1
Actual Seats:
Democrats: 47
Republicans: 53

House

Prediction: Solid R
Predicted Seats:
Democrats: 202
Republicans: 214
Toss-Ups: 19
Actual Seats:
Democrats: 215
Republicans: 220